Epidemic thunderstorm asthma forecasts will be issued daily from 1 October to 31 December. The forecast covers three consecutive days and uses a colour-coded scale: green (low), orange (moderate) and red (high).

Maps of current epidemic thunderstorm asthma forecast

Today

Map of Victorian weather districts and the status for today. These details are available in the table above or at emergency.vic.gov.au

Tomorrow

Map of Victorian weather districts and the status for tomorrow. These details are available in the table above or at emergency.vic.gov.au

Forecasts are issued twice daily. For up to date information on epidemic thunderstorm asthma risk visit the VicEmergency website or download the VicEmergency app from Google Play or the App Store and set up a 'watch zone'.

Three day epidemic thunderstorm asthma forecast by region

Current status:
District Thu
6th
Jan
Thu
6th
Jan
Thu
6th
Jan
 Last updated: Sun December 31st, 2017, 1:33 pm
Central No data available No data available No data available
East Gippsland No data available No data available No data available
Mallee No data available No data available No data available
North Central No data available No data available No data available
North East No data available No data available No data available
Northern Country No data available No data available No data available
South West No data available No data available No data available
West and South Gippsland No data available No data available No data available
Wimmera No data available No data available No data available

What do the forecasts mean?

The epidemic thunderstorm asthma forecast system will operate between 1 October and 31 December. It combines the forecasting of a certain uncommon type of thunderstorm and forecasting grass pollen counts across Victoria. 

It spans three days and uses a colour-coded scale from low to high risk: green (low), orange (moderate) and red (high).

  • A low risk (green) forecast means that the elements necessary for an epidemic thunderstorm asthma event are not expected and an event is unlikely.
  • A moderate risk (orange) forecast means that one of the elements necessary for an event may be present (i.e. a high pollen count or a severe thunderstorm storm). 
  • A high risk (red) forecast means that both a high pollen count and forecast severe thunderstorms increases the risk for an epidemic thunderstorm asthma event. 

The forecast is published on VicEmergency - emergency.vic.gov.au/prepare/#thunderstorm-asthma-forecast
Forecasts are not a formal 'warning' and do not mean an epidemic thunderstorm asthma event is certain to occur, rather they are designed to inform people at risk that they should be prepared.
The forecasting system is also not designed to forecast the risk of individual's suffering asthma and hay fever symptoms, which occur every year during the grass pollen season.

Those at increased risk should:

  • avoid exposure to any storms that may emerge, especially the wind gusts that precede them
  • have a reliever appropriately available (as discussed with your doctor or pharmacist) 
  • remind themselves of their asthma action plan and asthma first aid.

On a high risk day the department will issue up-to-date relevant advice and warnings on the  VicEmergency warning  platform.
The forecast will not be updated after 12:30pm on a given day, and any further updates will be posted on the VicEmergency website and app. 

How is epidemic thunderstorm asthma forecast?

The risk of an epidemic thunderstorm asthma event occurring is forecast daily during the Victorian grass pollen season (typically 1 October to 31 December). 

The department has worked with the Bureau of Meteorology and a number of partner organisations to develop the forecasting system. The system combines weather and pollen observations and data to forecast the risk of an epidemic thunderstorm asthma event. The forecasting system is not designed to forecast the risk of individual increases in asthma and hay fever symptoms, which occur every year during the grass pollen season.  

The science of epidemic thunderstorm asthma forecasting is new and, as with all forecasts, there is an element of uncertainty. A high risk forecast does not mean an epidemic thunderstorm asthma event is certain to occur, rather it should be considered seriously and those at risk and their families should be prepared. Likewise, the forecast may sometimes underestimate the risk. Therefore, it is important for those with asthma or hay fever to see their doctor or pharmacist to review their current medication, update their asthma action plan/hay fever treatment plan and learn asthma first aid. 

The forecasting system serves two purposes:

  • to enable health and emergency service systems to be suitably prepared on days of increased risk
  • to raise community awareness of possible events so, where possible, those at increased risk can take action to reduce the health impacts of a potential event.

For more information on Victoria's epidemic thunderstorm asthma forecast system, view our frequently asked questions.

Map of Victorian forecast districts

View a map of Victorian districts below or access the map website. A list of local government areas is also provided below.

List of local government authorities by forecast district

  • Central District
    • Ballarat City
    • Banyule City
    • Bass Coast Shire
    • Bayside City
    • Boroondara City
    • Brimbank City
    • Cardinia Shire
    • Casey City
    • Darebin City
    • Frankston City
    • French Island
    • Glen Eira City
    • Golden Plains
    • Greater Dandenong City
    • Greater Geelong City
    • Hepburn Shire
    • Hobsons Bay City
    • Hume City
    • Kingston City
    • Knox City
    • Macedon Ranges Shire
    • Manningham City
    • Maribyrnong City
    • Maroondah City
    • Melbourne City
    • Melton Shire
    • Monash City
    • Moonee Valey City
    • Moorabool Shire
    • Moreland City
    • Mornington Peninsula Shire
    • Nillumbik Shire
    • Port Phillip City
    • Queenscliffe Borough
    • Stonnington City
    • Surf Coast Shire
    • Whitehorse City
    • Whittlesea City
    • Wyndham City
    • Yarra City
    • Yarra Ranges Shire
  • East Gippsland District
    • East Gippsland Shire
  • Mallee District
    • Buloke Shire
    • Gannawarra Shire
    • Mildura Rural City
    • Swan Hill Rural City
    • Yarriambiack Shire (north of the netting fence)
  • North Central District
    • Central Goldfields Shire
    • Lake Mountain Alpine Resort
    • Mitchell Shire
    • Mount Alexander Shire
    • Murrindindi Shire
  • North East District
    • Alpine Shire
    • Benalla Rural City
    • Falls Creek Alpine Resort
    • Indigo Shire
    • Mansfield Shire
    • Mount Buller Alpine Resort
    • Mount Hotham Alpine Resort
    • Mount Stirling Alpine Resort
    • Towong Shire
    • Wangarrata Rural City
    • Wodonga City
  • Northern Country District
    • Campaspe Shire
    • Grerater Bendigo City
    • Greater Shepparton City
    • Loddon Shire
    • Moira Shire
    • Strathbogie Shire
  • South West District
    • Ararat Rural City
    • Colac Otway Shire
    • Corangamite Shire
    • Glenelg Shire
    • Moyne Shire
    • Pyrenees Shire
    • Southern Grampians Shire
    • Warrnambool City
  • West and South Gippsland District
    • Baw Baw Shire
    • Latrobe City
    • Mount Baw Baw Alpine Resort
    • South Gippsland Shire
    • Wellington Shire
  • Wimmera District
    • Hindmarsh Shire
    • Horsham Rural City
    • Northern Grampians Shire
    • West Wimmera Shire
    • Yarriambiack Shire (south of the netting fence)